Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:29:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

40 0x40a5…bac3 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$176 (+4%) realized +$176 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip

Net edge+28%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%13W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$304per market

Trades / day91.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+51.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+66.9%	+51.0%	100%	100%	+54.4%
≤30d	13	+66.9%	+51.0%	100%	100%	+54.4%
≤90d	13	+66.9%	+51.0%	100%	100%	+54.4%
all	13	+66.9%	+51.0%	100%	100%	+54.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover91.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+51.0%	100%	+54.4%
10% ← realistic here	+36.5%	100%	+39.6%
15%	+23.3%	100%	+26.1%
20%	+11.2%	77%	+13.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 17% · top 2 33% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +71% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +67% · $-wt +71% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +62% → late +71% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$215 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$176

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses13 / 0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)13 / 13

History coverage1d

Avg bet$304

Trades / day91.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 13 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Jun 27	$435	+$215	+50%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Jun 27	$442	+$432	+98%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Jun 27	$103	+$64	+63%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Jun 27	$385	+$251	+65%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Jun 27	$206	+$169	+82%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Jun 27	$205	+$116	+57%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Jun 27	$449	+$382	+85%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Jun 27	$330	+$213	+64%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Jun 27	$189	+$79	+42%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Jun 27	$422	+$212	+50%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Jun 27	$428	+$482	+113%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Jun 27	$230	+$107	+47%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Jun 27	$126	+$69	+55%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$51	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	BUY Up	59¢	$51	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$48	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Down	61¢	$51	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$26	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Down	60¢	$51	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$51	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$52	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$52	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Up	63¢	$51	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$52	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	BUY Down	76¢	$51	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$52	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$26	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	BUY Down	68¢	$51	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$51	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$103	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$52	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Up	62¢	$29	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$51	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$26	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Up	69¢	$26	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$52	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$52	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$52	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Up	33¢	$52	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Up	58¢	$51	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$52	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Down	60¢	$103	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$52	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 107 history records