Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:23:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40a1…c62f other 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$38 (+0%) realized +$50 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate28%39W / 98L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$435now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$278
14 days+$110
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% +$153
world 27% −$23
politics 18% +$12
economics 10% −$1
sports 6% −$123
crypto 5% +$5
tech 4% −$30
culture 1% −$14
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.5% -12.7% 25% 25% +24.1%
≤30d 58 -16.5% -24.4% 9% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 102 -12.3% -20.6% 17% 2% -10.0%
all 137 -7.5% -16.3% 28% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 7% -9.6%
10% -24.3% 5% -18.3%
15% -31.6% 5% -26.2%
20% -38.3% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 84% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$5 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$435
Realized+$50
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses39 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)137 / 142
History coverage159d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $342 $339 −$3 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $94 $91 −$3 (-3%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-71%)
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Adidas" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA Wor Jun 24 $0 $0 -20%
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Jun 24 $6 $0 -3%
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the South Afr Jun 24 $13 −$1 -6%
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the South Africa vs South Ko Jun 24 $7 $0 -5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $320 +$175 +55%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $71 −$69 -98%
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 23 $72 −$16 -22%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $260 +$190 +73%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $124 −$122 -98%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 18 $91 −$21 -24%
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? Jun 18 $41 −$4 -10%
Will BP be acquired before 2027? Jun 18 $62 −$7 -12%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $31 −$2 -6%
Will the announcers say "Loose Ball" during the Mexico vs South Korea Jun 18 $12 −$2 -20%
Will the announcers say "Hat Trick" during the Mexico vs South Korea F Jun 18 $2 $0 -2%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF Jun 18 $24 −$1 -5%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Czechia vs South Africa FI Jun 18 $7 $0 -3%
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b Jun 18 $5 −$2 -29%
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? Jun 18 $62 −$4 -6%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $69 −$4 -6%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $26 −$12 -46%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $7 $0 -3%
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Jun 11 $17 $0 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $5 $0 -4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 11 $11 $0 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 11 $12 $0 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 11 $13 $0 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $12 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Drake have 3+ albums in the Billboard 200 top 10? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 06 $4 $0 -10%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 06 $13 −$2 -14%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $50 −$8 -16%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $20 −$4 -18%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 04 $5 $0 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 04 $6 −$2 -39%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $17 +$1 +6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 03 $28 −$2 -7%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 03 $18 −$2 -12%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 03 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 30 $21 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 30 $55 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $18 $0 -0%
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, May 30 $6 −$2 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $347 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $97 1h
Will the announcers say "Adidas" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA Wor SELL Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Will the announcers say "Adidas" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA Wor BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? SELL No 14¢ $6 2d
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 14¢ $6 2d
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the South Afr SELL Yes 64¢ $13 2d
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the South Afr BUY Yes 67¢ $13 2d
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the South Africa vs South Ko SELL No 40¢ $7 2d
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the South Africa vs South Ko BUY No 41¢ $7 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $71 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $320 2d
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 45¢ $57 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $260 7d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $124 7d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec SELL Yes 13¢ $70 7d
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? SELL Yes 17¢ $27 7d
Will BP be acquired before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $55 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $29 7d
Will the announcers say "Loose Ball" during the Mexico vs South Korea SELL Yes 47¢ $9 8d
Will the announcers say "Loose Ball" during the Mexico vs South Korea SELL Yes 55¢ $1 8d
Will the announcers say "Hat Trick" during the Mexico vs South Korea F SELL Yes 50¢ $2 8d
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF SELL Yes 23¢ $0 8d
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Czechia vs South Africa FI SELL No 34¢ $7 8d
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Czechia vs South Africa FI BUY No 34¢ $7 8d
Will the announcers say "Loose Ball" during the Mexico vs South Korea BUY Yes 58¢ $12 8d
Will the announcers say "Hat Trick" during the Mexico vs South Korea F BUY Yes 50¢ $2 8d
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF BUY Yes 62¢ $1 8d
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF SELL Yes 61¢ $11 8d
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF BUY Yes 62¢ $12 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $435.05 · official $435.05 (match) · 436 history records