Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:52:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40a1…91d7 other 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$26 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -79% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -84% what you keep after slip
Net edge-84%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$962now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% $0
world 4% −$20
sports 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-81.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -79.1% -81.0% 17% 17% -6.2%
≤30d 6 -79.1% -81.0% 17% 17% -6.2%
≤90d 6 -79.1% -81.0% 17% 17% -6.2%
all 6 -79.1% -81.0% 17% 17% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -81.0% 17% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here -82.9% 17% -15.1%
15% -84.5% 0% -23.3%
20% -86.0% 0% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -79% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$5 · ×6.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$962
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)6 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $750 $747 −$3 (-0%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $135 $129 −$6 (-4%)
Belgium to win the second half? Yes 57¢ 62¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+9%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 10¢ 22¢ $9 $20 +$11 (+125%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $30 $13 −$17 (-57%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 22¢ 27¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-35%)
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 19¢ 7¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-62%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Over 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-84%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Over 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 Over 7¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain to win the second half? Jun 21 $118 +$30 +26%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 10¢ $9 17m
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 17m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 18m
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 66¢ $44 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 56¢ $41 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 3h
Spain to win the second half? SELL Yes 95¢ $148 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $2 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 3¢ $2 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 4h
Belgium to win the second half? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 4h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5h
Spain to win the second half? BUY Yes 75¢ $118 5h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $770 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $962.09 · official $962.09 (match) · 23 history records