Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:29:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
40 0x40a0…8ec3 crypto 160 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$214 (-1%) realized −$214 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate53%85W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$380
7 days−$250
14 days−$250
30 days−$250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$569
other 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 +7.9% -2.3% 57% 45% -12.1%
≤30d 101 +7.9% -2.3% 57% 45% -12.1%
≤90d 101 +7.9% -2.3% 57% 45% -12.1%
all 160 +1.4% -8.3% 53% 44% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 44% -14.1%
10% -17.0% 38% -22.4%
15% -25.1% 25% -29.9%
20% -32.4% 19% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$53 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$214
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses85 / 75
Open positions0
Markets (closed)160 / 160
History coverage121d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 160 Trades
no open positions (58 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $110 −$21 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $36 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $72 −$23 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$15 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $36 +$12 +34%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$9 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$11 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $93 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $43 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $83 −$44 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $165 +$47 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $74 −$47 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $174 −$43 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $306 +$31 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $206 +$32 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $205 +$51 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $206 +$28 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $181 −$175 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $181 −$165 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $536 +$46 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $722 +$30 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $179 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $177 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $356 +$36 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $44 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $36 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 377 history records