Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:54:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
40 0x409d…3546 other 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 561d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$170 (+11%) realized +$172 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%21W / 29L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$69
14 days+$65
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$186
sports 34% +$65
politics 15% −$28
economics 6% −$17
crypto 3% −$4
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +127.9% +106.2% 50% 50% +47.7%
≤30d 3 +82.6% +65.2% 33% 33% +27.6%
≤90d 3 +82.6% +65.2% 33% 33% +27.6%
all 50 +1.4% -8.3% 42% 36% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 36% +2.8%
10% -17.1% 30% -7.1%
15% -25.1% 28% -16.0%
20% -32.4% 24% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$10 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

561d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$172
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses21 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage561d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $10 −$2 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 +$80 +270%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $80 −$11 -14%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $49 −$4 -8%
Spread: Mavericks (-3.5) Nov 21 $23 −$23 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 21 $20 −$11 -54%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 20 $20 −$7 -33%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? Nov 14 $88 +$1 +2%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 08 $88 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $21 $0 +2%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-10-26? Oct 30 $20 +$9 +47%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-25? Oct 26 $20 +$6 +30%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest (BO3) Oct 25 $42 +$30 +72%
Will Sporting CP win on 2025-10-22? Oct 24 $18 +$23 +127%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 22 $22 −$4 -17%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 22 $10 $0 -4%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) Oct 07 $80 +$80 +100%
Nuggets vs. Raptors Oct 07 $20 +$22 +108%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 07 $25 −$4 -14%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-25? Sep 26 $32 +$33 +104%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-21? Sep 25 $28 +$4 +14%
Falcons vs. Panthers Sep 21 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Valencia win on 2025-09-20? Sep 21 $20 +$49 +245%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-20? Sep 20 $25 +$12 +49%
Will Bologna win on 2025-09-20? Sep 20 $27 +$24 +89%
CS: FURIA vs G2 Sep 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2025-09-07? Sep 07 $20 −$20 -100%
League of Legends: Shopify Rebellion vs. 100 Thieves Sep 07 $15 +$15 +96%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Aug 08 $21 −$5 -25%
BLAST Bounty: Complexity vs. HEROIC Aug 08 $61 −$3 -5%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Aug 08 $26 −$6 -25%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Aug 08 $24 −$5 -20%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? Aug 08 $32 −$6 -20%
League of Legends: Gen.G vs. T1 Aug 08 $127 +$81 +64%
League of Legends: DRX vs. DN Freecs Aug 07 $64 −$64 -100%
League of Legends: LNG Esports vs. LGD Gaming Aug 07 $39 −$39 -100%
League of Legends: DN Freecs Challengers vs. Nongshim Esports Academy Aug 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Cit Jul 05 $13 −$13 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 07 $6 −$1 -20%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Wisconsin Supreme Court election: Susan Crawford vs. Brad Schimel Jun 07 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-01? Jun 07 $6 +$3 +52%
Will Olympiakos Piraeus win on 2025-03-06? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Clippers vs. Nets Apr 01 $6 +$1 +16%
Will AZ Alkmaar win on 2025-03-06? Mar 28 $4 +$11 +245%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 06 $6 −$2 -25%
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? Mar 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Dec 12 $131 −$11 -8%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Dec 12 $53 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 92¢ $110 0m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 5h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) AND Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Will BUY 5¢ $15 5h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $69 5h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $80 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $45 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $49 7d
Spread: Mavericks (-3.5) BUY Mavericks 52¢ $23 216d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 31¢ $9 216d
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $13 217d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 218d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.60 · official $24.60 · 132 history records