Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:26:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x409d…f0cd world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate31%10W / 22L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$2
other 13% +$1
politics 11% $0
crypto 7% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.4% -9.1% 29% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 13 +0.2% -9.3% 23% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 13 +0.2% -9.3% 23% 0% -9.1%
all 32 +0.2% -9.3% 31% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 3% -9.2%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses10 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage264d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $29 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $49 +$4 +8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $26 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $26 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $29 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $27 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $54 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 01 $20 $0 +1%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 31 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $9 +$2 +19%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 23 $7 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 06 $3 $0 +1%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Oct 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $8 $0 -2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $8 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 29 $7 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Sep 27 $20 $0 -1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $29 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $29 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $29 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $28 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 68¢ $29 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 68¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 59¢ $25 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $13 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $11 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $2 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $25 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $26 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $26 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $26 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $24 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $16 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 94¢ $26 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $26 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $23 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $3 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 56¢ $27 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $30 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $30 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $29 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.62 · official $28.61 (match) · 223 history records