Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:01:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x409c…9ac8 other 339 markets active 2h ago coverage 354d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$329 (+2%) realized +$431 · open −$102
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate59%199W / 137L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days−$147
14 days−$167
30 days−$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$353
crypto 7% −$91
politics 5% −$122
tech 3% +$35
world 2% +$14
economics 1% +$16
sports 0% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +202.6% +173.8% 33% 33% -50.6%
≤30d 55 +74.1% +57.5% 44% 35% -15.4%
≤90d 155 +15.6% +4.6% 37% 28% -17.0%
all 336 +13.5% +2.7% 59% 35% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.7% 35% -7.2%
10% -7.1% 23% -16.1%
15% -16.1% 16% -24.2%
20% -24.3% 14% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$15 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

354d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized+$431
Unrealized−$102
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses199 / 137
Open positions3
Markets (closed)336 / 339
History coverage354d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 336 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 80¢ 92¢ $150 $171 +$21 (+14%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $150 $44 −$107 (-71%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 18¢ 1¢ $18 $1 −$17 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Jun 28 $10 −$9 -92%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Jun 28 $16 +$57 +350%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Jun 28 $9 −$8 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $50 −$10 -20%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 26 $22 +$7 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $68 +$7 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $63 −$9 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $21 +$6 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $42 −$41 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $37 −$36 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $20 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $49 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $144 −$16 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $86 +$12 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $25 −$6 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $102 +$9 +8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $128 +$19 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $41 +$7 +16%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $21 +$30 +142%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $91 +$36 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $21 +$11 +53%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $13 −$8 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $24 +$2 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 10 $11 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $111 −$8 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $10 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $248 −$20 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $99 +$12 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $26 +$11 +45%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 03 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $10 +$63 +652%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $73 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 8h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 25h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 26h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 26h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 26h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 29h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 29h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 29h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 29h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 29h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 30h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $39 31h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 35h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 39h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 40h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 40h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 40h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.10 · official $216.10 (match) · 1675 history records