Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:59:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
40 0x409a…f4de crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$2 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate96%22W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +4.1% -5.8% 96% 39% -7.9%
≤30d 23 +4.1% -5.8% 96% 39% -7.9%
≤90d 23 +4.1% -5.8% 96% 39% -7.9%
all 23 +4.1% -5.8% 96% 39% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 39% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 4% -16.7%
15% -23.0% 0% -24.7%
20% -30.6% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$20 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses22 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Down 86¢ 76¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.78 · official $7.97 (match) · 57 history records