Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:36:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x4099…8c46
sports · 898 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$395 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$389 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$389
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses606 / 289
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions3
Markets (closed)895 / 898
History coverage19d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day141.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 3 History 895 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days−$365
14 days−$419
30 days−$389
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Up 57¢ 46¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Panna Udvardy 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner Leo Team 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bratislava: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Tomas Barrios Tomas Barrios 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Emma Navarro 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Chris Rodesch Chris Rodesch 38¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ilkley: Luca Nardi vs Jacob Fearnley Luca Nardi 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Nande+4 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Zizou Bergs 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group A VP.Prodigy 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Saigon Dino 36¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner MIBR 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
ITF Wuning: Haruka Kaji vs Ya Yi Yang Jun 12 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 57% −$57
sports 41% −$335
other 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 737 -12.9% -21.2% 68% 18% -14.6%
≤30d 895 -11.3% -19.7% 68% 26% -14.4%
≤90d 895 -11.3% -19.7% 68% 26% -14.4%
all 895 -11.3% -19.7% 68% 26% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover141.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 26% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 24% -22.6%
15% -34.4% 18% -30.1%
20% -40.9% 11% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.00 · official $4.00 (match) · 3500 history records