Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:19:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4099…c1e7 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-6%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -76% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip
Net edge-80%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$32
other 6% $0
sports 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-78.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -76.3% -78.5% 20% 10% -71.2%
≤30d 10 -76.3% -78.5% 20% 10% -71.2%
≤90d 10 -76.3% -78.5% 20% 10% -71.2%
all 10 -76.3% -78.5% 20% 10% -71.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -78.5% 10% -71.2%
10% -80.6% 10% -73.9%
15% -82.5% 0% -76.5%
20% -84.2% 0% -78.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -76% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.96 · official $4.96 (match) · 17 history records