Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:53:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x4099…bbf5
crypto · 288 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$19,367 -179%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,420 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,420
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses94 / 194
Open positions0
Markets (closed)288 / 288
History coverage38d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day84.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 0 History 288 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$364
7 days−$1,189
14 days−$1,772
30 days−$2,420
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $44 −$43 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $44 −$4 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $22 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $33 −$9 -28%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $61 +$28 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$15 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$15 +327%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $57 +$28 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $39 +$15 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$20 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $39 +$16 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $47 +$20 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $45 +$15 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 95% −$2,373
other 5% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $18 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $30 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $8 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $23 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-40.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 -46.8% -51.8% 27% 25% -42.3%
≤30d 288 -34.3% -40.6% 33% 28% -29.8%
≤90d 288 -34.3% -40.6% 33% 28% -29.8%
all 288 -34.3% -40.6% 33% 28% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover84.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.6% 28% -29.8%
10% ← realistic here -46.3% 26% -36.5%
15% -51.4% 24% -42.7%
20% -56.2% 18% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records