Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:06:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4096…ad4d crypto 1381 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$982 (-14%) realized −$977 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%436W / 944L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day42.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$537
7 days−$673
14 days−$286
30 days−$373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$173
sports 1% −$56
other 0% −$10
politics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 348 -21.9% -29.3% 25% 25% -34.2%
≤30d 820 -10.7% -19.2% 28% 27% -17.2%
≤90d 1380 -5.5% -14.5% 32% 31% -13.6%
all 1380 -5.5% -14.5% 32% 31% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 31% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 31% -21.9%
15% -30.1% 31% -29.4%
20% -37.0% 31% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$977
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses436 / 944
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1380 / 1381
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day42.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1380 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+48%)
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? Yes 28¢ 11¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$7 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$13 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$27 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$5 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.10 · official $12.12 (match) · 3500 history records