Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4095…2e31 weather 160 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$455 (-11%) realized −$471 · open +$16
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate51%79W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$31
14 days+$56
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 35% −$4
crypto 25% −$566
world 18% +$22
other 10% +$29
finance 6% +$29
tech 3% +$13
politics 1% +$8
culture 0% +$1
sports 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +5.9% -4.2% 72% 40% -6.6%
≤30d 79 -25.2% -32.3% 52% 34% -7.8%
≤90d 154 -1.9% -11.2% 51% 38% -20.4%
all 154 -1.9% -11.2% 51% 38% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 38% -20.4%
10% -19.7% 27% -28.0%
15% -27.5% 23% -34.9%
20% -34.6% 16% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized−$471
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses79 / 75
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)154 / 160
History coverage68d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 68¢ 74¢ $108 $116 +$8 (+8%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of June 15 2026? No 81¢ 95¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $157 −$7 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $153 +$3 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $185 +$19 +10%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $31 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -32%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$2 +7%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$14 +93%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 15 $26 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $32 −$10 -30%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $26 +$10 +37%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $4 +$1 +38%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pr Jun 13 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 13 $49 −$17 -34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$7 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$3 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $12 +$2 +14%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $11 +$1 +6%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $100 +$3 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 09 $30 −$20 -65%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 09 $16 $0 -1%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $12 +$7 +56%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $13 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $11 +$5 +44%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 06 $21 +$6 +28%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $106 +$3 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $77 +$12 +16%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $13 +$3 +23%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $26 +$3 +12%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 02 $20 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $105 +$28 +27%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 29 $20 +$14 +70%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $50 +$10 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 29? May 29 $6 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $150 34m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 90¢ $91 47m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 90¢ $59 50m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 94¢ $157 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $156 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $153 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $153 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 81¢ $50 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $50 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $36 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 27h
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $3 27h
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $2 27h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 33¢ $5 37h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 41h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 41h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 90¢ $31 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $29 43h
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $45 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 44h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $15 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $49 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $22 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $16 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $32 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.34 · official $184.34 (match) · 360 history records