Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:39:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4095…4583 crypto 1108 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d only
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$37 (+1%) realized +$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%587W / 697L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day54.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$384
7 days−$384
14 days−$384
30 days−$472
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$198
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 205 -88.6% -89.6% 6% 5% -94.2%
≤30d 324 -62.5% -66.0% 18% 14% -55.3%
≤90d 1284 -19.8% -27.5% 46% 38% -20.2%
all 1284 -19.8% -27.5% 46% 38% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.5% 38% -20.2%
10% ← realistic here -34.4% 27% -27.8%
15% -40.7% 19% -34.8%
20% -46.5% 13% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses587 / 697
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1284 / 1108
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day54.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1284 Trades
no open positions (402 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records