Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:59:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x4093…5749
sports · 475 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$9,455 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9,720 · open −$321
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7,335
Realized+$9,720
Unrealized−$321
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses248 / 161
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$640
Open positions82
Markets (closed)409 / 475
History coverage10d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day301.8
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 82 History 409 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,076
7 days+$4,640
14 days+$9,720
30 days+$9,720
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Yes 68¢ 100¢ $816 $1,204 +$388 (+47%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? No 92¢ 100¢ $490 $534 +$45 (+9%)
Ilkley: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Dalma Galfi Elizabeth Mandlik 87¢ 100¢ $460 $523 +$63 (+14%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Marcos Giron 56¢ 46¢ $600 $499 −$101 (-17%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $458 $457 −$1 (-0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 91¢ 96¢ $404 $425 +$21 (+5%)
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Kamilla Rakhimova 54¢ 100¢ $177 $325 +$148 (+84%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $280 $310 +$30 (+11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 84¢ $291 $298 +$7 (+2%)
Ilkley: Celine Naef vs Akasha Urhobo Celine Naef 74¢ 67¢ $300 $272 −$28 (-9%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 99¢ 99¢ $202 $201 −$1 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Yes 69¢ 93¢ $146 $197 +$51 (+35%)
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Daria Snigur 65¢ 59¢ $185 $168 −$16 (-9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 32¢ $113 $166 +$53 (+47%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $103 $138 +$35 (+34%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Yes 72¢ 96¢ $96 $129 +$32 (+34%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? No 47¢ 46¢ $124 $122 −$1 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 77¢ 60¢ $152 $118 −$34 (-22%)
Ilkley: Celine Naef vs Akasha Urhobo Akasha Urhobo 35¢ 33¢ $113 $107 −$6 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 22¢ $69 $105 +$36 (+52%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 23¢ 19¢ $107 $88 −$19 (-18%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 13? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $80 $81 +$0 (+0%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? No 98¢ 98¢ $76 $76 +$0 (+0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 53¢ 54¢ $76 $76 +$1 (+1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 93¢ 97¢ $59 $61 +$3 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $152 +$36 +24%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Jun 12 $4 +$1 +23%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $82 +$40 +49%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 12 $336 −$195 -58%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $342 +$105 +31%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $84 −$45 -54%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $21 +$9 +42%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $95 −$92 -96%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $21 +$3 +13%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $225 −$111 -49%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 12 $55 +$59 +107%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $53 +$71 +135%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $1 +$1 +79%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $976 +$115 +12%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 12 $26 −$10 -37%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $14 +$32 +228%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $312 +$98 +31%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $296 −$256 -86%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $153 −$153 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $37 −$37 -100%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $832 +$420 +50%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $174 −$1 -1%
Tucuman: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 11 $15 +$5 +32%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $724 −$664 -92%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova Jun 11 $95 +$6 +6%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Clement Tabur Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $442 +$43 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +42%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $55 +$4 +7%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 11 $13 −$7 -56%
Modena: Tamara Zidansek vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 11 $398 +$146 +37%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $12 −$6 -52%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $13 +$5 +42%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $143 +$126 +88%
Bratislava: Maxim Mrva vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 11 $2 $0 +7%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $52 −$52 -100%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $220 +$215 +98%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Miguel Damas Jun 11 $504 +$374 +74%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $3 −$1 -46%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 11 $14 −$6 -47%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $19 −$11 -57%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $632 +$202 +32%
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Mayar Sherif Jun 11 $6 +$3 +54%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $273 +$580 +213%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 11 $30 +$7 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 68% +$3,564
crypto 28% +$5,870
politics 2% +$52
other 2% −$47
world 1% −$40
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ilkley: Celine Naef vs Akasha Urhobo BUY Celine Naef 74¢ $302 2m
Ilkley: Harmony Tan vs Lanlana Tararudee BUY Harmony Tan 49¢ $4 2m
Ilkley: Celine Naef vs Akasha Urhobo BUY Akasha Urhobo 35¢ $116 6m
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger BUY Ashlyn Krueger 97¢ $3 7m
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Robin Montgomery 45¢ $5 14m
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Daria Snigur 58¢ $1 14m
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Darja Vidmanova 90¢ $2 15m
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Daria Snigur 50¢ $3 15m
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch BUY Darwin Blanch 39¢ $2 17m
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Robin Montgomery 46¢ $1 17m
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Robin Montgomery 40¢ $5 18m
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Iva Jovic 65¢ $2 18m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 99¢ $1 23m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 48¢ $76 23m
Ilkley: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Dalma Galfi BUY Dalma Galfi 12¢ $0 23m
Ilkley: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Dalma Galfi BUY Elizabeth Mandlik 95¢ $5 24m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 99¢ $1 24m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 99¢ $3 24m
Ilkley: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Dalma Galfi BUY Elizabeth Mandlik 89¢ $3 24m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 98¢ $1 25m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 99¢ $5 25m
Ilkley: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Dalma Galfi BUY Elizabeth Mandlik 94¢ $2 26m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 42¢ $4 27m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 42¢ $45 27m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 42¢ $45 27m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 42¢ $45 27m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 42¢ $5 27m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 42¢ $43 27m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 42¢ $6 28m
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Daria Snigur 65¢ $183 28m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 316 +0.1% -9.5% 61% 42% -2.4%
≤30d 409 +13.6% +2.8% 61% 44% +0.4%
≤90d 409 +13.6% +2.8% 61% 44% +0.4%
all 409 +13.6% +2.8% 61% 44% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover301.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.8% 44% +0.4%
10% ← realistic here -7.0% 32% -9.2%
15% -16.0% 22% -18.0%
20% -24.3% 16% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,334.86 · official $7,334.47 (match) · 3500 history records