Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:29:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x408c…e57e sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,451 (-33%) realized −$1,450 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%20W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$32
14 days+$32
30 days−$1,482
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$373
politics 35% +$8
other 28% −$1,113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +13.1% +2.3% 83% 17% -4.9%
≤30d 8 -14.8% -22.9% 62% 12% -67.9%
≤90d 10 -20.4% -28.0% 60% 20% -39.3%
all 36 -8.1% -16.9% 56% 44% -39.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 44% -39.1%
10% -24.8% 33% -45.0%
15% -32.1% 17% -50.3%
20% -38.8% 14% -55.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$113 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized−$1,450
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses20 / 16
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage166d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 94¢ $179 $178 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $142 +$10 +7%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $10 +$16 +161%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $156 +$6 +4%
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Jun 21 $155 +$2 +1%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 20 $147 +$7 +5%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $609 −$428 -70%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,124 −$1,086 -97%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Apr 09 $1,322 +$188 +14%
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Feb 16 $202 −$169 -84%
Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 08 $30 +$16 +54%
Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 Feb 08 $48 +$14 +28%
Deportivo Alavés vs. Getafe CF: Both Teams to Score Feb 08 $16 +$4 +26%
Deportivo Alavés vs. Getafe CF: O/U 1.5 Feb 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $22 −$22 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $7 +$3 +35%
Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score Jan 25 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $5 +$26 +525%
FC Bayern München vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Score Jan 11 $10 +$9 +89%
Rams vs. Panthers Jan 11 $10 +$2 +19%
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Juncheng Shang vs Alexander Bublik Jan 11 $20 +$2 +12%
ASB Classic: Elina Svitolina vs Katie Boulter Jan 09 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-08? Jan 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Big Bash League: Melbourne Stars vs Sydney Sixers (Game 1) Jan 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers Jan 08 $11 $0 -1%
Jazz vs. Thunder Jan 08 $3 $0 +12%
Brisbane International: Elena Rybakina vs Paula Badosa Jan 08 $10 +$2 +24%
49ers vs. Eagles Jan 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Maryland Terrapins Jan 08 $10 +$3 +32%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-07? Jan 08 $20 +$7 +37%
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Michael Mmoh vs Karen Khachanov Jan 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $179 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $142 5h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $156 18h
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 99¢ $155 30h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Germany 95¢ $147 41h
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 22d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 23¢ $168 22d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 22d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 22d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 22d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 1¢ $38 22d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 28¢ $1,022 22d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 22d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? BUY Yes 84¢ $195 126d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? BUY Yes 84¢ $741 126d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? BUY Yes 84¢ $42 126d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? BUY Yes 84¢ $23 126d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 126d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 126d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? BUY Yes 83¢ $12 126d
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL Yes 3¢ $33 126d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL No 16¢ $0 126d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL No 16¢ $47 126d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL No 16¢ $161 126d
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 130d
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 130d
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? BUY Yes 21¢ $168 130d
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? BUY Yes 21¢ $18 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.05 · official $178.05 (match) · 92 history records