Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:38:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
40 0x408c…2e26 sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$374 (+16%) realized +$373 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate71%15W / 6L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day25.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$449
other 43% −$117
crypto 12% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +12.7% +2.0% 71% 67% +5.4%
≤30d 21 +12.7% +2.0% 71% 67% +5.4%
≤90d 21 +12.7% +2.0% 71% 67% +5.4%
all 21 +12.7% +2.0% 71% 67% +5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.0% 67% +5.4%
10% ← realistic here -7.8% 52% -4.7%
15% -16.7% 52% -13.9%
20% -24.8% 33% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$56 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$373
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses15 / 6
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage2d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $60 $61 +$2 (+3%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Senegal (-4.5) Jun 26 $19 +$11 +57%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $71 +$30 +41%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $85 +$3 +3%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $107 +$96 +89%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $34 −$34 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $53 −$31 -58%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $269 +$32 +12%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $319 +$212 +66%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $62 +$39 +62%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $85 −$49 -58%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $166 +$34 +20%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $476 +$104 +22%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $97 −$96 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $56 +$41 +73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $111 −$109 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $36 +$13 +36%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $32 +$36 +114%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $34 +$16 +48%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $15 +$15 +97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $49 +$21 +43%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $60 1h
Spread: Senegal (-4.5) SELL Senegal 100¢ $30 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $101 1h
Spread: Senegal (-4.5) BUY Senegal 63¢ $19 1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) SELL Senegal 88¢ $88 3h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 85¢ $85 3h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 70¢ $71 3h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $203 18h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $34 19h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $107 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $22 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $53 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $301 21h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $508 21h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $278 21h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $101 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 30¢ $36 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 69¢ $85 22h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $23 22h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $200 22h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $269 24h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $10 24h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $5 24h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $19 24h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $5 24h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $5 24h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $5 24h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $20 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.36 · official $90.37 (match) · 54 history records