Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:00:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x408c…5eff
world · 39 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$14 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$27
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses2 / 30
Open positions12
Markets (closed)32 / 39
History coverage14d
Avg bet$295
Trades / day251.0
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 12 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 97¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 96¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 84¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 12 $0 $0 -193%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $128 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 12 $40 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 12 $33 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 11 $60 $0 -0%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the mos Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Jun 09 $77 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 09 $314 $0 -0%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 08 $23 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $135 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 04 $31 $0 -0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $60 $0 -0%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $7 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $16 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $8 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $168 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $8 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $8 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $8 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 30 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $7 +$8 +107%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 29 $7 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 69% +$6
politics 25% $0
other 6% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 2m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 2m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 11m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 12m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $5 19m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $5 19m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 31m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 31m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 42m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 42m
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 55m
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 55m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $5 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -5.5% -14.5% 5% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 32 -3.1% -12.3% 6% 3% -9.1%
≤90d 32 -3.1% -12.3% 6% 3% -9.1%
all 32 -3.1% -12.3% 6% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover251.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 3% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 3% -17.8%
15% -28.4% 3% -25.7%
20% -35.4% 3% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.42 · official $25.01 · 3500 history records