Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:26:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
40 0x4083…b38b crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,798per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 98% −$16
crypto 1% $0
world 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
other 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 8 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 0% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage148d
Avg bet$1,798
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $41 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? May 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 25 $19 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Mar 25 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 07 $15,911 −$16 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Mar 07 $27 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.98 · official $40.98 (match) · 17 history records