Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:27:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x407f…5ca2 crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$264 (-39%) realized −$264 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$143
sports 20% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -9.3% -17.9% 44% 38% -42.4%
≤30d 16 -9.3% -17.9% 44% 38% -42.4%
≤90d 16 -9.3% -17.9% 44% 38% -42.4%
all 16 -9.3% -17.9% 44% 38% -42.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 38% -42.4%
10% -25.8% 31% -48.0%
15% -33.0% 25% -53.0%
20% -39.5% 19% -57.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$40 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$264
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$36 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $58 +$17 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$10 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $90 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $201 −$189 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$45 +451%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 21 $105 −$105 -100%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $25 +$10 +39%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $58 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $85 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $201 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla SELL 100 Thieves 100¢ $35 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 53¢ $100 15h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 100 Thieves 70¢ $25 16h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 26¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $2 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records