Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:40:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
40 0x407d…1bae world 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$39,683 (+7%) realized +$39,714 · open −$31
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate59%50W / 35L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$5,868per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Fees−$101est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$46,560now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,045
7 days+$15,852
14 days+$29,776
30 days+$38,673
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$22,622
politics 23% −$1,452
crypto 9% +$15,562
finance 4% −$580
sports 4% +$146
other 2% −$2,016
tech 0% +$366
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +28.4% +16.2% 75% 56% -0.6%
≤30d 39 +16.4% +5.3% 69% 56% +2.3%
≤90d 85 +5.0% -5.0% 59% 40% -3.2%
all 85 +5.0% -5.0% 59% 40% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 40% -3.2%
10% -14.1% 33% -12.5%
15% ← realistic here -22.4% 19% -20.9%
20% -30.0% 13% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$4,483) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,036 vs −$571 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.03 per $1 lost it wins $3.03
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$46,560
Realized+$39,714
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses50 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions10
Markets (closed)85 / 95
History coverage75d
Avg bet$5,868
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $38,695 $39,940 +$1,245 (+3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 87¢ 100¢ $3,659 $4,191 +$532 (+15%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 83¢ 97¢ $947 $1,105 +$158 (+17%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 60¢ 20¢ $2,395 $800 −$1,595 (-67%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? No 77¢ 94¢ $371 $456 +$86 (+23%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes $170 $52 −$118 (-69%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 13¢ $320 $12 −$307 (-96%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes $34 $3 −$31 (-91%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+30%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No $0 $0 −$0 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $111,000 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $213 +$62 +29%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $1,726 −$1,711 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $5,291 +$3,659 +69%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $200 +$35 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $1,690 +$2,570 +152%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $16,519 +$5,097 +31%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 14 $1,350 +$93 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $4,630 +$4,060 +88%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 13 $844 −$67 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $4,483 +$355 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $450 +$375 +83%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $3,587 +$1,814 +51%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $6,881 −$793 -12%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $710 +$254 +36%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $1,950 +$50 +3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $6,585 −$125 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,650 +$50 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $592 −$332 -56%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1,867 +$711 +38%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $44,444 +$13,620 +31%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $688 −$666 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $5,472 +$2,608 +48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $30,535 +$5,520 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 30 $1,150 −$550 -48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 30 $911 −$808 -89%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $720 +$271 +38%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $4,080 −$2,137 -52%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $2,999 +$778 +26%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $750 +$250 +33%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $547 +$366 +67%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $12,600 +$400 +3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 23 $1,080 +$740 +68%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $8,735 +$1,265 +14%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $1,038 +$353 +34%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $678 +$79 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $5,552 −$490 -9%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? May 21 $397 −$397 -100%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 20 $644 +$1,316 +204%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $6,503 +$97 +2%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $2,494 −$311 -12%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $79 +$23 +29%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $688 +$318 +46%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $389 +$366 +94%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 15 $58 +$6 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 13 $1,659 +$509 +31%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
MegaETH FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 12 $14 −$6 -44%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? May 12 $563 −$475 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $300 38m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 60¢ $600 45m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 70¢ $254 47m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 71¢ $142 48m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 71¢ $35 48m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,064 50m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $41 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $34 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $13 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $20 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $100 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $15 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $50 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $12 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $46 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $66 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46,559.69 · official $46,559.65 (match) · 1906 history records