Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:26:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x407b…1dbd other 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$504 (-3%) realized −$502 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate65%33W / 18L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$390now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$629
other 24% +$147
economics 11% +$10
crypto 6% +$36
politics 4% −$5
sports 1% −$22
tech 0% −$39
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.8% -13.0% 33% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 6 -19.0% -26.7% 17% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 20 -5.3% -14.3% 45% 10% -14.0%
all 51 -7.9% -16.7% 65% 6% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 6% -12.7%
10% -24.6% 4% -21.0%
15% -31.9% 2% -28.7%
20% -38.6% 2% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -13% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$49 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$390
Realized−$502
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses33 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)51 / 57
History coverage535d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $129 $126 −$2 (-2%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Yes 34¢ 33¢ $96 $94 −$2 (-2%)
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $64 $66 +$1 (+2%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 95¢ 95¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $42 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? No 90¢ 93¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $537 +$28 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $497 −$21 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $130 −$16 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 30 $852 −$10 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $851 −$13 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 23 $48 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $1,007 −$82 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 22 $1,265 −$142 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 22 $78 +$49 +63%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 22 $2,494 −$422 -17%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Apr 22 $87 $0 +0%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Apr 22 $84 +$6 +7%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? Apr 22 $1,274 +$1 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? Apr 22 $690 +$85 +12%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Apr 21 $534 +$27 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 21 $204 +$5 +3%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 21 $112 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $51 −$24 -48%
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? Mar 28 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? Feb 26 $40 +$1 +2%
Fed rate cut by January 2026 meeting? Feb 26 $430 +$3 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 26 $993 +$7 +1%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? Jan 27 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 27 $101 +$9 +9%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 27 $125 +$5 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 27 $145 +$9 +6%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Jan 27 $187 +$14 +8%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? Jan 27 $294 +$6 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 13 $97 +$10 +10%
Will Google (GOOGL) hit $335 before 2026?? Dec 13 $47 −$40 -85%
Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Dec 09 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 02 $7 −$4 -50%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Oct 28 $3 $0 -0%
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 27 $11 −$5 -50%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Jun 27 $8 +$2 +25%
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League? Apr 16 $18 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Apr 16 $21 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Apr 16 $27 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000.00 by March 31? Apr 16 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Joel Embiid lead the NBA in Rebounds? Mar 14 $125 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $350 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 3-Jan 10? Feb 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 3-Jan 10? Feb 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 06 $21 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 06 $25 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 06 $395 +$5 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 07 $106 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 27-Jan 3? Jan 07 $12 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e BUY Yes 17¢ $6 12m
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e BUY Yes 18¢ $36 16m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 38m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 45m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 47m
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? SELL Yes 26¢ $8 1h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY Yes 26¢ $141 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $142 6d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $26 6d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $26 6d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $19 6d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $6 6d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $2 6d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $23 6d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $1 6d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $21 6d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $21 6d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $12 6d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $22 6d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $10 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $58 6d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $22 6d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $23 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 6d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $25 6d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $24 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $58 6d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $18 6d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $390.35 · official $390.35 (match) · 605 history records