Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:29:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x407b…ff02 crypto 356 markets active 3h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$55 (-1%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%339W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$97
7 days−$81
14 days−$64
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$60
other 2% +$2
finance 2% −$9
politics 1% $0
sports 1% +$2
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 255 -2.0% -11.3% 95% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 353 -1.1% -10.5% 96% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 353 -1.1% -10.5% 96% 0% -10.7%
all 353 -1.1% -10.5% 96% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 0% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 0% -19.2%
15% -26.9% 0% -27.0%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses339 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)353 / 356
History coverage12d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 353 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.33 · official $54.33 (match) · 717 history records