Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:07:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

40 0x4079…6b62 other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 133d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$370 (-14%) realized −$296 · open −$74

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -77% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip

Net edge-80%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$330per market

Trades / day0.9pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$1,336now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 133d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-79.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	1	-77.4%	-79.5%	0%	0%	-79.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-79.5%	0%	-79.5%
10%	-81.5%	0%	-81.5%
15%	-83.3%	0%	-83.3%
20%	-84.9%	0%	-84.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -77% · $-wt -77% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

13.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

— vs −$356 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage

Net worth$1,336

Realized−$296

Unrealized−$74

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions4

Markets (closed)1 / 8

History coverage133d

Avg bet$330

Trades / day0.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$859	$742	−$118 (-14%)
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$346	$398	+$52 (+15%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$202	$194	−$8 (-4%)
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-14%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?	Mar 22	$460	−$356	-77%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	12¢	$144	18m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	12¢	$64	1h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	SELL Yes	2¢	$65	3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND	BUY	11¢	$25	3h
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?	SELL Yes	2¢	$25	3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND	BUY	12¢	$17	9h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND	BUY	7¢	$7	9h
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?	SELL Yes	2¢	$23	9h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND	BUY	8¢	$23	9h
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?	SELL Yes	2¢	$23	9h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$72	18h
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?	SELL Yes	2¢	$72	18h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$68	35h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$154	35h
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?	SELL Yes	2¢	$220	35h
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?	BUY Yes	2¢	$449	4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$218	5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$47	6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$69	6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$255	6d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	BUY Yes	2¢	$3	7d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	BUY Yes	2¢	$69	7d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	BUY Yes	2¢	$8	7d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?	BUY Yes	2¢	$89	7d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?	BUY Yes	3¢	$136	18d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?	BUY Yes	4¢	$74	89d
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?	SELL Yes	1¢	$28	91d
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?	BUY Yes	17¢	$5	91d
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?	BUY Yes	18¢	$65	91d
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?	SELL Yes	30¢	$66	91d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,335.62 · official $1,404.98 · 131 history records