Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4078…eed8 other 178 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$51 (-4%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate44%77W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$14
14 days−$16
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$11
other 38% −$2
crypto 13% −$25
world 0% +$3
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 -4.1% -13.2% 51% 29% -10.5%
≤30d 177 -8.3% -17.0% 44% 27% -11.8%
≤90d 177 -8.3% -17.0% 44% 27% -11.8%
all 177 -8.3% -17.0% 44% 27% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 27% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 15% -20.3%
15% -32.2% 11% -28.0%
20% -38.8% 7% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses77 / 100
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)177 / 178
History coverage22d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 177 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? Jun 28 $90 +$1 +1%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $73 +$16 +22%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $65 +$9 +13%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $60 +$6 +10%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 28 $5 +$3 +57%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Argentina? Jun 28 $55 +$2 +3%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $54 +$1 +2%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $53 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? Jun 28 $29 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 28 $22 +$2 +7%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $51 $0 -0%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $53 −$2 -4%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $14 +$1 +9%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $2 +$1 +28%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? Jun 27 $1 $0 -44%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$4 -44%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $17 −$1 -3%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 England? Jun 27 $1 $0 -15%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $24 −$6 -26%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $22 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 27 $1 $0 -16%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Neither team to score first? Jun 27 $22 −$18 -80%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $1 +$5 +459%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $1 $0 -3%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $1 $0 -14%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -76%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $17 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $40 −$15 -37%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $27 +$2 +7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $19 +$4 +22%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $18 −$8 -44%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -79%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $34 +$2 +5%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $13 +$2 +14%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 26 $7 $0 +6%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $8 +$1 +7%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -49%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $2 $0 +11%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $30 +$5 +16%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 25 $12 −$1 -8%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $20 $0 +1%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 24m
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 99¢ $85 32m
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 34m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $89 52m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 82¢ $0 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 82¢ $73 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $74 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 88¢ $65 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $65 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $8 2h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 94¢ $8 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $52 2h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Argentina? SELL No 100¢ $52 2h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Argentina? SELL No 96¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Argentina? BUY No 96¢ $55 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $54 3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $54 3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 98¢ $53 3h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? SELL No 100¢ $29 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 100¢ $24 3h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? BUY No 97¢ $29 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 93¢ $22 4h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $51 4h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $51 4h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 87¢ $51 4h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 87¢ $0 4h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $53 4h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? SELL Yes 78¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 532 history records