Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:08:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
40 0x4078…99cb sports 102 markets active 2d ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,060 (+51%) realized +$1,061 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%59W / 39L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$1,011
crypto 18% +$46
other 1% −$3
tech 0% $0
finance 0% +$2
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +25.7% +13.7% 68% 63% +28.1%
≤30d 19 +25.7% +13.7% 68% 63% +28.1%
≤90d 98 -11.5% -19.9% 60% 40% +36.5%
all 98 -11.5% -19.9% 60% 40% +36.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 40% +36.5%
10% -27.6% 33% +23.4%
15% -34.6% 27% +11.5%
20% -41.0% 23% +0.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +51% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$3 · ×7.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.5 per $1 lost it wins $11.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$1,061
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses59 / 39
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions4
Markets (closed)98 / 102
History coverage61d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 36¢ 27¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 13 $2 +$3 +146%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 $0 +27%
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Nicolas Kicker Jun 13 $1 +$2 +188%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $1 +$2 +158%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $1 +$2 +119%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Iran closes its airspace by May 6? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Katie Boulter vs Eva Lys Jun 13 $3 +$5 +140%
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Caty McNally vs Daria Kasatkina May 05 $2 −$2 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jessica Bouzas Manei May 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin above 76,200 on April 26, 6PM ET? May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 76,600 on April 26, 6PM ET? May 05 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 77,000 on April 26, 6PM ET? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 26, 5PM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - April 26, 5PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 25 $3 −$3 -98%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Doosan Bears Apr 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Procter & Gamble (PG) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 25 $1 $0 +4%
Madrid Open: Linda Noskova vs Emiliana Arango Apr 25 $1 $0 +14%
Madrid Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elena Rybakina Apr 25 $1 $0 +5%
Madrid Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Tyra Caterina Grant Apr 25 $1 +$1 +38%
Will Virtus Entella win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $1 +$1 +101%
Will US Avellino 1912 win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $1 +$2 +129%
Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $2 +$2 +118%
Will Frosinone Calcio win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $2 +$1 +62%
Madrid Open: Simona Waltert vs Jelena Ostapenko Apr 25 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Delfino Pescara 1936 win on 2026-04-25? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Palermo FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Will FC Südtirol win on 2026-04-25? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Madrid Open: Janice Tjen vs Liudmila Samsonova Apr 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will GPT-5.5 not be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $1 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 5PM ET Apr 23 $12 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - April 22, 5PM ET Apr 23 $13 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 22, 5PM ET Apr 23 $22 $0 +1%
Boca Juniors vs. Obras Apr 22 $1 $0 +42%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Utah vs. Golden Knights Apr 21 $14 −$14 -99%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 21 $2 +$1 +26%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 21 $10 +$6 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 45h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 45h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 45h
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? BUY No 99¢ $2 45h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 45h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 45h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $1 45h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 87¢ $1 45h
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette BUY Barbora Krejcikova 82¢ $1 45h
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 40¢ $2 45h
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti BUY Francesco Forti 34¢ $1 45h
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw BUY Daniel Galan 44¢ $1 45h
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Nicolas Kicker BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 34¢ $1 45h
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 81¢ $1 46h
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 37¢ $1 46h
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 45¢ $1 46h
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel BUY Taro Daniel 49¢ $1 46h
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle BUY Enrico Dalla Valle 27¢ $1 46h
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer BUY David Jorda Sanchis 38¢ $1 46h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 50¢ $1 46h
Iran closes its airspace by May 6? BUY No 97¢ $1 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Katie Boulter vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 41¢ $3 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Caty McNally vs Daria Kasatkina BUY Daria Kasatkina 53¢ $2 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jessica Bouzas Manei BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 39¢ $2 40d
Bitcoin above 77,000 on April 26, 6PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 49d
Bitcoin above 76,600 on April 26, 6PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 49d
Bitcoin above 76,200 on April 26, 6PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 49d
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 26, 5PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 49d
XRP Up or Down - April 26, 5PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.81 · official $5.81 (match) · 171 history records