Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:17:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4076…864b world 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate44%17W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$6
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% +$22
other 16% +$1
finance 2% $0
politics 1% −$13
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.6% -10.1% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 33 +6.7% -3.5% 39% 12% -8.1%
≤90d 36 +6.1% -4.0% 44% 11% -8.5%
all 39 +0.6% -9.0% 44% 10% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 10% -9.0%
10% -17.7% 8% -17.7%
15% -25.6% 5% -25.7%
20% -32.9% 3% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses17 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage488d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 47¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $46 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $13 −$1 -6%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $41 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $64 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $69 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $62 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $96 +$3 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $19 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $16 +$3 +18%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $164 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $74 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $111 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $63 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $52 +$15 +28%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $56 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $7 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $4 −$1 -25%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $60 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $54 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $8 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $6 +$3 +46%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $2 $0 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $34 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $41 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 24 $271 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $45 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $42 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $226 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $230 $0 +0%
Will any other candidate win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election? Mar 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Canada win the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off? Feb 19 $12 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $8 2m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $23 2m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $16 2m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $46 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 6h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $13 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $19 42h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $41 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $63 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $39 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $25 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $4 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $66 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $69 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.64 · official $0.00 (match) · 154 history records