Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:23:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4072…c225 other 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$15 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate23%20W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$456now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$294
14 days+$162
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$227
world 24% −$1
politics 12% −$63
tech 9% −$15
crypto 4% −$1
culture 4% −$42
economics 3% −$4
sports 3% −$130
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -3.3% -12.5% 18% 18% +19.4%
≤30d 29 -22.9% -30.2% 7% 7% -3.9%
≤90d 73 -17.2% -25.1% 19% 4% -10.4%
all 87 -15.5% -23.6% 23% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 7% -9.8%
10% -30.9% 6% -18.4%
15% -37.6% 6% -26.3%
20% -43.7% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 81% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$8 · ×3.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$456
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses20 / 67
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)87 / 92
History coverage158d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $348 $345 −$3 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $96 $93 −$3 (-3%)
Trump on $250 bill this year? Yes 10¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Yes 10¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-55%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $103 −$5 -5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $330 +$180 +55%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $73 −$71 -98%
GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026? Jun 23 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? Jun 23 $43 −$1 -2%
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $3 $0 -10%
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by 10–20%? Jun 23 $40 −$2 -6%
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? Jun 23 $15 −$1 -4%
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 31? Jun 23 $14 $0 -2%
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? Jun 23 $11 −$3 -24%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 23 $282 +$198 +70%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $132 −$130 -98%
Will the announcers say "History" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIF Jun 18 $5 $0 -3%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF Jun 18 $7 $0 -5%
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 18 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Jun 18 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Drake have 3+ albums in the Billboard 200 top 10? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 06 $24 −$10 -40%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Jun 06 $27 −$9 -34%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $16 −$2 -14%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 06 $19 −$7 -38%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? Jun 06 $21 −$8 -36%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $84 −$1 -2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 03 $4 −$4 -95%
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 02 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? May 30 $49 −$24 -49%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? May 30 $17 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1PM ET May 29 $2 $0 -4%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 29 $20 −$2 -8%
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? May 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $312 in May? May 25 $18 −$1 -3%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 21 $6 $0 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? May 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $3 −$2 -96%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 20 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 17 to Apr May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $128 in May? May 18 $45 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 May 18 $22 −$1 -4%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $98 $0 -0%
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? May 14 $0 $0 -4%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? May 14 $98 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 14 $99 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $188 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $98 $0 +0%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 08 $22 −$1 -4%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m May 08 $80 −$9 -12%
Will Odyssey Therapeutics' market cap be between $0.8B and $1.1B at ma May 08 $17 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $13 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $25 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $29 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $352 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $20 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $98 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 18h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $73 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $330 2d
GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $2 3d
GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $2 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $42 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $43 3d
GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $2 3d
GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1 3d
GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $2 3d
GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $3 3d
GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $3 3d
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 3d
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by 10–20%? SELL No 75¢ $37 3d
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by 10–20%? BUY No 79¢ $40 3d
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 3d
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $15 3d
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 3d
GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $0 3d
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 31? SELL Yes 71¢ $14 3d
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 31? BUY Yes 72¢ $14 3d
GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $456.20 · official $456.20 (match) · 312 history records