Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:12:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4072…561d crypto 35 markets active 4d ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,263 (-20%) realized −$8,263 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%16W / 19L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,204per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11,242
14 days−$11,242
30 days−$11,242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$10,113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -23.3% -30.6% 38% 35% -35.8%
≤30d 26 -23.3% -30.6% 38% 35% -35.8%
≤90d 35 -18.8% -26.5% 46% 40% -31.2%
all 35 -18.8% -26.5% 46% 40% -31.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 40% -31.2%
10% -33.5% 34% -37.8%
15% -39.9% 26% -43.8%
20% -45.8% 20% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$2,073) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$672 vs −$1,098 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8,263
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses16 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage63d
Avg bet$1,204
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $833 −$833 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $2,064 −$2,064 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $2,403 −$1,592 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $1,556 +$815 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $381 −$381 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $3,203 −$3,203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $2,051 +$1,112 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $805 +$1,796 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $1,054 −$1,054 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $2,107 −$995 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $2,080 +$2,629 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $2,067 −$1,506 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $1,035 +$956 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $3,061 −$2,848 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $3,034 −$2,395 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $2,073 −$2,017 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $2,273 +$590 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $201 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $1,599 −$233 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $518 +$79 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $253 −$99 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $2,423 +$671 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $913 −$913 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $516 +$423 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 13 $228 −$228 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 13 $214 −$214 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 13 $1,018 +$1,200 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 13 $189 +$26 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 12 $672 +$155 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 11 $437 +$35 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 11 $310 +$128 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 11 $283 +$127 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $525 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $309 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $92 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $49 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $224 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $446 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $316 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $357 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $521 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $215 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $310 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $393 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $290 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 288 history records