Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:22:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4070…cedf crypto 1557 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$58 (-1%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%1512W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day23.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days−$60
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$7
world 18% −$23
other 10% −$46
tech 2% −$3
economics 1% $0
politics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.6% -11.9% 25% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 65 -1.8% -11.2% 58% 0% -11.5%
≤90d 1557 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 0% -10.2%
all 1557 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 0% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1512 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1557 / 1557
History coverage70d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day23.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1557 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 25 $237 +$8 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 25 $32 $0 -0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 23 $27 −$4 -13%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 18 $106 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 16 $136 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 16 $45 −$27 -61%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $42 −$15 -35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $306 −$20 -6%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 12 $190 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $511 −$1 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 10 $53 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 10 $26 −$3 -11%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $37 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $164 $0 -0%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $91 −$1 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $11 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $120 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $144 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 05 $22 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 05 $12 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $32 −$8 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 02 $98 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 01 $152 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 01 $154 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 30 $170 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $64 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 29 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 29 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 29 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 29 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 29 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 29 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 29 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 29 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 29 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 28 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 28 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 28 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 28 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 28 $4 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 28 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 28 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 28 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 28 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 28 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $118 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $111 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $32 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $32 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 43h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 27¢ $17 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 27¢ $27 2d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 6d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $53 6d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 6d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 6d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $6 6d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 6d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 6d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $10 6d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $2 6d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 6d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $2 6d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $16 6d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 6d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $106 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 50¢ $16 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 49¢ $2 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 49¢ $1 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 49¢ $13 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 49¢ $16 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 50¢ $17 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 69¢ $44 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 69¢ $4 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 69¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3206 history records