Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:40:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x406d…7816 crypto 339 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$1,416 (+19%) realized +$1,416 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%131W / 208L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day56.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$304
7 days+$304
14 days+$559
30 days+$1,534
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,534
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +32.3% +19.7% 67% 67% -0.6%
≤30d 339 +32.3% +19.7% 39% 37% +4.2%
≤90d 339 +32.3% +19.7% 39% 37% +4.2%
all 339 +32.3% +19.7% 39% 37% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.7% 37% +4.2%
10% ← realistic here +8.2% 34% -5.7%
15% -2.2% 30% -14.8%
20% -11.8% 26% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$15 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,416
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses131 / 208
Open positions0
Markets (closed)339 / 339
History coverage24d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day56.2
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 339 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $131 +$89 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$6 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$25 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $24 +$36 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $181 +$88 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $121 +$79 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $221 −$34 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $150 +$20 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$43 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $60 +$66 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $93 +$94 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $70 +$17 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$21 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$11 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$13 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$40 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$24 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $382 −$382 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $241 +$102 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $120 +$152 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $70 +$52 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $35 +$35 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $12 +$48 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$15 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $75 +$167 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$9 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $17 +$8 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $11 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $19 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $23 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $0 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1608 history records