Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:39:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
40 0x406b…dc4e crypto 63 markets active 4h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$68 (-9%) realized −$73 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%37W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$37
14 days−$78
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$67
weather 31% +$4
sports 7% −$9
other 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +7.7% -2.5% 59% 43% -15.2%
≤30d 62 +4.6% -5.4% 60% 40% -19.4%
≤90d 62 +4.6% -5.4% 60% 40% -19.4%
all 62 +4.6% -5.4% 60% 40% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 40% -19.4%
10% -14.4% 34% -27.1%
15% -22.7% 23% -34.1%
20% -30.3% 23% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses37 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage7d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Yes 74¢ 99¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +284%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $39 −$28 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $44 −$29 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $36 +$34 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$3 +313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$24 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$6 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $25 $0 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $50 −$9 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $23 +$27 +120%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $41 +$9 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 74¢ $15 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $7 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $6 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $0 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $6 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $6 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $0 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $6 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 28h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.81 · official $19.65 (match) · 129 history records