Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:48:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4069…d4e4 crypto 158 markets active 3d ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$107 (-12%) realized −$44 · open −$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate59%91W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$22
14 days−$34
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$84
world 10% −$54
sports 4% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -2.0% -11.4% 61% 39% -22.2%
≤30d 116 -8.3% -17.0% 59% 34% -15.2%
≤90d 155 -6.4% -15.3% 59% 38% -16.4%
all 155 -6.4% -15.3% 59% 38% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 38% -16.4%
10% -23.4% 28% -24.4%
15% -30.8% 17% -31.7%
20% -37.6% 11% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$44
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses91 / 64
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)155 / 158
History coverage32d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 71¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 75¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$8 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $33 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $13 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$6 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +7%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +15%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $11 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $13 +$15 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 02 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 02 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 02 $20 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 02 $7 −$4 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 02 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 02 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 02 $7 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 02 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $28 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $27 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.13 (match) · 515 history records