Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:03:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4068…6043 world 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-2%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%10W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$5
other 20% −$1
finance 9% $0
sports 2% −$2
politics 2% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.0% -10.4% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 8 -1.8% -11.1% 38% 0% -11.8%
≤90d 16 +0.2% -9.4% 44% 0% -10.4%
all 29 -4.6% -13.7% 34% 3% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 3% -11.2%
10% -22.0% 3% -19.7%
15% -29.5% 0% -27.5%
20% -36.4% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses10 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage491d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $33 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $47 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $14 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $2 $0 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $40 −$4 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $63 −$2 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $20 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $3 $0 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $1 $0 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $98 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $8 $0 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $53 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $6 $0 +8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $52 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 18 $47 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $1 $0 -38%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 24 $3 −$2 -60%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $4 −$1 -14%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum above $1,900 on April 11? Apr 12 $2 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? Mar 20 $2 $0 -8%
Will Manchester United vs. Ipswich end in a draw? Mar 04 $5 +$1 +27%
UNC Wilmington vs. William & Mary Feb 25 $8 −$4 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $33 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $3 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $30 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $33 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $10 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $3 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $47 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $14 34h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $14 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 38h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $36 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $34 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $36 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $34 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $5 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $15 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $20 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $20 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $9 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $29 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 31d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 31d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 31d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $49 31d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $50 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 30¢ $19 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records