Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:15:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
40 0x4068…f40c other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$543 (+40%) realized +$585 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip
Net edge+33%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%17W / 21L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$261
7 days+$578
14 days+$578
30 days+$570
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$530
sports 4% +$7
world 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +53.6% +38.9% 46% 40% +43.1%
≤30d 38 +46.7% +32.7% 45% 39% +41.1%
≤90d 38 +46.7% +32.7% 45% 39% +41.1%
all 38 +46.7% +32.7% 45% 39% +41.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.7% 39% +41.1%
10% +20.0% 34% +27.6%
15% +8.4% 32% +15.3%
20% -2.2% 29% +4.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late +59% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$24 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$285
Realized+$585
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses17 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)38 / 47
History coverage28d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $89 $88 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $60 $49 −$11 (-19%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $28 $23 −$5 (-18%)
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals Yes 30¢ 28¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Will Sweden score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $31 +$219 +712%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$32 +52%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $30 +$25 +83%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 +$5 +12%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Gabriel Martinelli: 1+ goals Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$7 +32%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $31 +$398 +1290%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $61 +$82 +134%
Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$17 +43%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 +$179 +874%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $9 +$23 +250%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +20%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$38 +93%
Pedri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $60 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $8 +$8 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $90 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 1h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2h
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $20 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $61 24h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $62 24h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 24h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 24h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 2d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $30 2d
Gabriel Martinelli: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $40 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 3d
Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $20 3d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 1¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $61 4d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $20 4d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $31 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 4d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 4d
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $20 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $285.19 · official $285.19 (match) · 68 history records