Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:49:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4064…5f1e sports 278 markets active 1h ago coverage 196d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$465 (-0%) realized −$960 · open +$495
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%107W / 169L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,178per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$5,297est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,990now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 196d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$22,663
other 11% +$1,670
world 0% −$516
finance 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -20.5% -28.0% 37% 37% -11.7%
≤30d 111 -1.0% -10.4% 37% 35% -15.4%
≤90d 152 -0.5% -10.0% 41% 39% -15.1%
all 276 -5.0% -14.0% 39% 38% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 38% -17.1%
10% -22.3% 38% -25.0%
15% -29.8% 37% -32.3%
20% -36.7% 31% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$1,131) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,047 vs −$794 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$1,990
Realized−$960
Unrealized+$495
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses107 / 169
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$5,297
Open positions2
Markets (closed)276 / 278
History coverage196d
Avg bet$1,178
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 276 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jessica Pegula 62¢ 84¢ $995 $1,356 +$361 (+36%)
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Yulia Starodubtseva 30¢ 38¢ $500 $634 +$134 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 154 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $509 +$711 +140%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $5,420 +$2,712 +50%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $1,495 −$1,470 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $5,923 −$447 -8%
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 16 $1,160 −$1,139 -98%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $458 −$450 -98%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $407 −$400 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $1,794 +$1,415 +79%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $1,015 −$30 -3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,015 +$1,111 +109%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $827 +$1,204 +146%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 11 $553 +$273 +49%
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan Jun 10 $2,133 −$1,171 -55%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 10 $1,124 −$72 -6%
Modena: Laura Samson vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 10 $410 −$400 -98%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 10 $1,000 +$477 +48%
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher Jun 09 $933 −$916 -98%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $583 −$570 -98%
Modena: Xinyu Gao vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 09 $10,206 +$66 +1%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $576 −$570 -99%
Modena: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 09 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $552 +$1,039 +188%
Modena: Jeline Vandromme vs Angela Fita Boluda Jun 08 $1,524 −$1,499 -98%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $1,026 +$29 +3%
Modena: Xiyu Wang vs Laura Samson Jun 08 $1,071 −$600 -56%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 08 $508 +$535 +105%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 07 $509 +$772 +152%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Priscilla Hon vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 07 $1,732 +$825 +48%
Foggia: Lucia Bronzetti vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 06 $1,023 +$1,813 +177%
Makarska: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 06 $1,441 −$1,419 -98%
Makarska: Noma Noha Akugue vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Jun 05 $7,516 +$2,222 +30%
Makarska: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 05 $3,295 +$745 +23%
Foggia: Chloe Paquet vs Darya Astakhova Jun 05 $2,326 −$2,284 -98%
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 05 $552 −$541 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 05 $7,236 −$2,940 -41%
Makarska: Robin Montgomery vs Lea Boskovic Jun 04 $5,011 −$2,928 -58%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Viola Turini Jun 04 $36 −$35 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $1,477 −$1,439 -97%
Makarska: Lola Radivojevic vs Mia Ristic Jun 04 $1,022 +$2,520 +247%
Makarska: Katarzyna Kawa vs Maya Joint Jun 04 $813 −$800 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 04 $1,508 +$3,307 +219%
Foggia: Varvara Lepchenko vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 03 $614 −$600 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $4,038 −$416 -10%
Foggia: Chloe Paquet vs Nika Radisic Jun 03 $615 −$600 -98%
Birmingham: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 03 $2,105 +$1,050 +50%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $3,199 −$2,950 -92%
Foggia: Darya Astakhova vs Lisa Pigato Jun 03 $1,008 +$88 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 62¢ $1,007 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 30¢ $511 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $509 18h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Karolina Pliskova 100¢ $8,133 19h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 66¢ $5,420 19h
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Suzan Lamens 44¢ $1,495 21h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry SELL Diane Parry 94¢ $8,294 21h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Clara Tauson $460 21h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry SELL Diane Parry 95¢ $538 21h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 57¢ $1,969 23h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 58¢ $3,494 23h
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova BUY Rebeka Masarova 37¢ $1,160 24h
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY McCartney Kessler 38¢ $1,019 25h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 55¢ $1,013 30h
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 41¢ $458 41h
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Anna Blinkova 40¢ $407 42h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider SELL Nikola Bartunkova 60¢ $1,368 45h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 13¢ $308 45h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider SELL Diana Shnaider 66¢ $1,840 45h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 52¢ $66 46h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 52¢ $1,420 46h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari SELL Maria Sakkari 50¢ $985 47h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 50¢ $1,015 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,015 4d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 53¢ $1,014 4d
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher BUY Lucia Bronzetti 40¢ $827 5d
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic SELL Marie Bouzkova 51¢ $826 5d
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic BUY Marie Bouzkova 33¢ $553 6d
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan SELL Katie Swan 100¢ $37 6d
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan BUY Tereza Martincova 20¢ $1,048 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,990.15 · official $1,723.16 · 521 history records