Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:27:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x4063…ea8d
sports · 51 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$353 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$371 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22
Realized−$371
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses24 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$411
Open positions4
Markets (closed)47 / 51
History coverage24d
Avg bet$441
Trades / day74.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 47 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$325
14 days−$357
30 days−$371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner 9z 77¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$2 (+30%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 34¢ 64¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+89%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 63¢ 36¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-43%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Spirit 64¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+54%)
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner B8 93¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Aurora Gaming 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-93%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Spirit 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 12¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Legacy 13¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 FlyQuest 36¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner B8 17¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 GamerLegion 55¢ 0¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner FURIA 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner PARIVISION 49¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Legacy 4¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 NRG 85¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Nongshim Red Force 38¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner TYLOO 16¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner TYLOO 33¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Vici Gaming 41¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Virtus.pro 33¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $89 +$8 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $54 +$5 +9%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $225 +$5 +2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $83 −$4 -5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $159 −$23 -15%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $224 −$15 -7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $145 +$27 +19%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $153 −$6 -4%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $282 −$57 -20%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $682 +$38 +6%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $228 +$22 +10%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $197 −$17 -9%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $181 −$11 -6%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $2,038 −$143 -7%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $160 +$4 +2%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $100 +$3 +3%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $781 −$43 -6%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,241 +$36 +3%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $1,142 +$22 +2%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,027 +$43 +4%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $2,998 +$8 +0%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,353 +$37 +3%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $1,462 +$174 +12%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,671 −$135 -8%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,964 +$161 +8%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $789 −$242 -31%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $401 −$88 -22%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $447 −$80 -18%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $176 −$20 -12%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $196 +$4 +2%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $252 +$19 +8%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $180 −$12 -7%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $68 −$44 -65%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $255 −$17 -7%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series G Jun 03 $15 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Grou Jun 03 $151 −$5 -3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $152 +$18 +12%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $290 −$29 -10%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Eu Jun 02 $24 +$1 +5%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner May 21 $17 −$17 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 20 $12 +$20 +169%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $6 +$3 +50%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 20 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner May 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $5 +$3 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$380
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 71¢ $5 1m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 34¢ $3 1m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 66¢ $12 1m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 64¢ $5 1m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 52¢ $4 2m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 53¢ $6 2m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 47¢ $4 2m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 59¢ $5 3m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 41¢ $2 3m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 41¢ $2 3m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 35¢ $3 3m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 65¢ $0 3m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 64¢ $12 3m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 67¢ $5 5m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 62¢ $5 5m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 38¢ $3 5m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 61¢ $5 5m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 60¢ $5 5m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 41¢ $4 5m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 39¢ $11 6m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 61¢ $5 6m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 54¢ $5 9m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 46¢ $4 9m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 38¢ $4 10m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 62¢ $12 10m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 34¢ $3 11m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 77¢ $6 13m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 23¢ $2 13m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 77¢ $6 13m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 72¢ $12 13m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +45.6% +31.7% 53% 18% -11.2%
≤30d 47 +29.2% +16.9% 51% 21% -11.4%
≤90d 47 +29.2% +16.9% 51% 21% -11.4%
all 47 +29.2% +16.9% 51% 21% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover74.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.9% 21% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here +5.7% 15% -19.8%
15% -4.5% 13% -27.6%
20% -13.9% 9% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.20 · official $21.30 (match) · 1806 history records