Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4060…e63c sports 814 markets active 0h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,564 (-10%) realized −$3,566 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%354W / 447L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$304est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$582now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days+$33
14 days−$81
30 days−$3,438
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$3,327
other 19% −$373
world 6% +$224
crypto 3% −$380
politics 1% +$65
tech 1% +$72
weather 0% −$19
finance 0% −$6
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +46.6% +32.6% 49% 47% -7.3%
≤30d 472 -4.8% -13.8% 44% 43% -20.9%
≤90d 758 -5.9% -14.8% 44% 43% -19.5%
all 801 -4.9% -13.9% 44% 43% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 43% -18.8%
10% -22.2% 41% -26.6%
15% -29.7% 36% -33.7%
20% -36.6% 28% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$38 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$582
Realized−$3,566
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses354 / 447
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$304
Open positions13
Markets (closed)801 / 814
History coverage159d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 801 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $930 Week of June 15 2026? No 79¢ 76¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 Week of June 15 2026? No 89¢ 84¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $92.50 Week of June 15 2026? No 71¢ 98¢ $40 $55 +$15 (+38%)
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $288 Week of June 15 2026? No 82¢ 86¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 Week of June 15 2026? No 80¢ 92¢ $45 $52 +$7 (+15%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $157.50 Week of June 15 2026? No 74¢ 82¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+11%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $385 Week of June 15 2026? No 77¢ 92¢ $34 $41 +$7 (+20%)
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $116 Week of June 15 2026? No 45¢ 82¢ $22 $40 +$18 (+83%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $175 Week of June 15 2026? No 51¢ 42¢ $40 $33 −$7 (-18%)
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $102 Week of June 15 2026? No 68¢ 56¢ $35 $29 −$6 (-18%)
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $236 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 61¢ 42¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-32%)
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,110 Week of June 15 2026? No 68¢ 30¢ $35 $16 −$19 (-55%)
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 17? Up 59¢ 64¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 405 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $142 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $50 +$6 +11%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.00 Week of June 1 Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 +$31 +152%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$50 +982%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$37 +712%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $33 +$5 +15%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $65 +$6 +9%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$31 +152%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $212 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -97%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $40 +$8 +20%
Will Botafogo FC vs. Operário Ferroviário EC end in a draw? Jun 15 $35 +$15 +42%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $397.50 Week of June 15 2 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will AS FAR vs. Wydad Athletic Club end in a draw? Jun 14 $35 +$14 +40%
Will HUS Agadir vs. RS Berkane end in a draw? Jun 14 $35 +$14 +40%
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$44 +216%
Will EC Juventude vs. AA Ponte Preta end in a draw? Jun 14 $40 +$12 +31%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 +$17 +42%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe end in a draw? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Athletic Club vs. Goiás EC end in a draw? Jun 14 $35 −$35 -99%
Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $40 +$13 +32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$33 +129%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 +$42 +414%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 +$57 +1116%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +250%
Will COD Meknès vs. RCA Zemamra end in a draw? Jun 12 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Olympic Dcheira win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $40 +$14 +34%
Will OC Safi vs. Kawkab AC end in a draw? Jun 12 $35 +$17 +49%
COD Meknès vs. RCA Zemamra: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
FathUnionSport vs. Maghreb AS de Fès: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
OC Safi vs. Kawkab AC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $35 +$15 +44%
Will FathUnionSport vs. Maghreb AS de Fès end in a draw? Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $25 +$29 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 89¢ $100 24m
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 59¢ $10 1h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $175 Week of June 15 2026 BUY No 51¢ $41 1h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $930 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 79¢ $101 1h
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $102 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 68¢ $35 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $61 21h
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $142 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 66¢ $25 41h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 56¢ $31 41h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 96¢ $56 41h
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $116 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 45¢ $22 41h
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.00 Week of June 1 BUY No 72¢ $40 41h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $51 41h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $157.50 Week of June 15 20 BUY No 74¢ $40 42h
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 Week of June 15 BUY No 80¢ $45 42h
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $385 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 77¢ $34 2d
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $288 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 82¢ $50 2d
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $92.50 Week of June 15 2 BUY No 71¢ $40 2d
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 95¢ $38 2d
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 97¢ $71 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $15 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $20 2d
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 82¢ $33 2d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $212 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 18¢ $14 2d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 86¢ $50 2d
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 88¢ $65 2d
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,110 Week of June 15 20 BUY No 68¢ $35 2d
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $236 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 2d
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $397.50 Week of June 15 2 BUY No 18¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 12¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $582.47 · official $578.07 (match) · 1276 history records