Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:20:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

40 0x405f…164f other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$50 (-32%) realized −$32 · open −$18

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day10.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	3	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	3	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	3	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$15 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$87

Realized−$32

Unrealized−$18

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 3

Open positions7

Markets (closed)3 / 10

History coverage1d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day10.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway?	Yes	9¢	20¢	$15	$32	+$18 (+117%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria?	Yes	15¢	14¢	$15	$14	−$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$15	$14	−$1 (-9%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$15	$13	−$2 (-14%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$15	$13	−$2 (-14%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway?	Yes	7¢	0¢	$15	$0	−$15 (-99%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$15	$0	−$15 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 16	$15	−$15	-98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 16	$15	−$15	-98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$15	−$15	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan?	BUY Yes	11¢	$15	1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	BUY Yes	11¢	$15	1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria?	BUY Yes	15¢	$15	1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria?	BUY Yes	17¢	$15	1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway?	BUY Yes	9¢	$15	1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway?	BUY Yes	7¢	$15	1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway?	BUY Yes	12¢	$15	1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	14¢	$15	14h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	14¢	$15	14h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	11¢	$15	14h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.75 · official $86.76 (match) · 10 history records