Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:44:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
40 0x405e…8bc0 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$3
economics 5% $0
politics 4% $0
sports 2% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 60% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 13 -23.0% -30.3% 54% 0% -9.7%
all 13 -23.0% -30.3% 54% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -37.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -43.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -48.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage62d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 10 $112 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
Will Astralis win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $37 $0 -0%
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Hailey Baptiste May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $2,570 −$3 -0%
T20 Challenge Trophy, Women: Italy vs Vanuatu Apr 29 $1 $0 +1%
Madrid Open: Vit Kopriva vs Rafael Jodar Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Saint-Malo: Yara Bartashevich vs Celine Naef Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 22 $44 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $44 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 1h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $38 11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $37 14d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 15d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 16d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $37 16d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $37 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $37 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $37 18d
Will Astralis win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 19d
Will Astralis win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 99¢ $37 25d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 26d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 40d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $2,567 54d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $2,570 54d
T20 Challenge Trophy, Women: Italy vs Vanuatu BUY Italy 99¢ $1 54d
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Hailey Baptiste BUY Aryna Sabalenka 88¢ $1 54d
Madrid Open: Vit Kopriva vs Rafael Jodar BUY Rafael Jodar 82¢ $1 54d
Saint-Malo: Yara Bartashevich vs Celine Naef BUY Celine Naef 85¢ $1 54d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $29 57d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $15 57d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $44 59d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? SELL No 100¢ $44 60d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY No 100¢ $44 62d
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $44 62d
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 99¢ $44 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records