Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:18:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
40 0x405b…755c sports 417 markets active 0h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,038 (+3%) realized +$922 · open +$116
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate79%292W / 79L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$5,778now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$50
14 days+$102
30 days+$257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$14
sports 17% +$269
finance 17% +$226
economics 10% +$80
world 10% +$290
crypto 7% +$132
tech 5% +$111
politics 4% −$29
culture 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +14.2% +3.3% 78% 59% -4.9%
≤30d 73 +12.5% +1.8% 82% 58% -2.7%
≤90d 151 +9.6% -0.8% 83% 55% -3.7%
all 371 +2.7% -7.1% 79% 49% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 49% -5.7%
10% -16.0% 30% -14.8%
15% -24.1% 18% -23.0%
20% -31.6% 12% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$20 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$5,778
Realized+$922
Unrealized+$116
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses292 / 79
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions46
Markets (closed)371 / 417
History coverage245d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 46 History 371 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $1,261 $1,344 +$83 (+7%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $1,009 $1,031 +$23 (+2%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 65¢ 76¢ $248 $289 +$41 (+16%)
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 93¢ $280 $279 −$1 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 84¢ 86¢ $252 $256 +$4 (+2%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June? No 86¢ 99¢ $222 $254 +$33 (+15%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027? No 85¢ 87¢ $213 $218 +$5 (+2%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 94¢ $186 $188 +$2 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $180 $183 +$3 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 88¢ $183 $176 −$6 (-3%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 90¢ 89¢ $135 $133 −$2 (-2%)
Will USD/JPY hit 200 (High) in 2026? No 92¢ 90¢ $110 $107 −$3 (-3%)
Will the Bank of Korea cut by 50 bps or more at the August 2026 meeting? No 95¢ 96¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $95 $100 +$5 (+5%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 93¢ 96¢ $93 $97 +$3 (+4%)
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 96¢ $86 $96 +$10 (+11%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 87¢ 89¢ $87 $89 +$2 (+2%)
Will USD/JPY hit 110 (Low) in 2026? No 91¢ 86¢ $82 $78 −$4 (-5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 90¢ 68¢ $90 $68 −$22 (-24%)
Will USD/JPY hit 120 (Low) in 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $62 $63 +$1 (+1%)
Will Jacob deGrom win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? No 88¢ 91¢ $53 $54 +$1 (+3%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027? No 93¢ 96¢ $48 $50 +$1 (+2%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $46 $47 +$2 (+4%)
Will Indiana Fever win the 2026 WNBA Finals? No 87¢ 92¢ $44 $46 +$3 (+6%)
Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? No 74¢ 76¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $6 +$4 +64%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 +$4 +57%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $4 +$6 +150%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $45 +$5 +11%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $6 +$4 +70%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 Jun 16 $196 +$4 +2%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $7 +$3 +52%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $7 +$3 +39%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $7 +$3 +52%
Will Viktor Gyökeres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $21 +$9 +43%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $25 +$15 +60%
Will Jalen Brunson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? Jun 14 $12 +$11 +92%
Will Jalen Brunson record the highest scoring game of the 2026 NBA Fin Jun 14 $99 −$34 -34%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $62 +$8 +14%
Will Julian Champagnie score 40+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Fi Jun 14 $31 +$2 +6%
Will Mikal Bridges score 40+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Finals Jun 14 $28 +$2 +9%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 +$4 +55%
Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $8 +$2 +33%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $6 +$4 +70%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $8 +$2 +29%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $151 +$4 +2%
Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31 Jun 12 $196 +$16 +8%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $8 +$2 +26%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026- Jun 11 $88 +$12 +13%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $18 +$2 +10%
Will Julian Champagnie lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +29%
Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $8 +$2 +29%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $131 +$19 +14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? Jun 09 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31? Jun 08 $49 +$4 +9%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 08 $36 +$4 +10%
Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $8 +$2 +33%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.25T and 1.50T? Jun 05 $116 +$12 +10%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 Jun 04 $73 +$3 +4%
Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 0.5 Jun 04 $2 +$1 +33%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 03 $30 +$4 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 01 $188 +$9 +5%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 01 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Alex Caruso win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 31 $139 +$10 +7%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $15 +$4 +28%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 30 $380 +$20 +5%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? May 30 $19 +$8 +40%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 29 $245 +$6 +3%
Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 0.5 May 29 $8 +$2 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $9 26m
Will Enzo Fernandez join Atletico Madrid? BUY No 92¢ $18 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $6 1h
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027? BUY No 79¢ $39 1h
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $6 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $7 12h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $6 23h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 24h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $1 35h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $3 35h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $9 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $85 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $6 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 86¢ $43 3d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $6 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $7 3d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 90¢ $135 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $7 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $7 3d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $46 4d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 51¢ $4 4d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 51¢ $1 4d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 51¢ $3 4d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 51¢ $10 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $8 5d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 51¢ $1 5d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 69¢ $5 5d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 69¢ $0 5d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 69¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,778.31 · official $5,780.71 (match) · 1650 history records