Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:20:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4059…07e6 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%10W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$1
other 27% $0
politics 5% +$1
sports 4% $0
culture 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 +0.1% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 12 +0.1% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
all 31 +0.6% -9.0% 32% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -9.5%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses10 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage464d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $32 $32 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $38 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $32 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $36 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $57 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on June 17? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 16 $9 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July? Jun 12 $10 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $11 +$1 +5%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will courts block Trump's tariffs by Friday? Apr 13 $12 $0 +4%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $11 $0 -0%
Playboi Carti's "MUSIC" debuts at #1 on Billboard 200? Mar 23 $13 −$1 -12%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $13 $0 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $32 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $4 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $24 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $33 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $36 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $36 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $22 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $2 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $12 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $36 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $33 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $32 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $33 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $3 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $36 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $33 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 98¢ $32 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $30 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $30 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $4 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $6 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $22 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $28 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $29 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $29 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.64 · official $31.64 (match) · 84 history records