Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:05:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x4058…49d2
sports · 35 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
−$144 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$144 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$144
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses21 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$288
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage22d
Avg bet$727
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 0 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$243
7 days+$38
14 days+$1,281
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 33¢ 0¢ $218 $0 −$218 (-100%)
Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5) Club Atlético de Madrid 81¢ 0¢ $576 $0 −$576 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Andrey Rublev Camilo Ugo Carabelli 46¢ 0¢ $568 $0 −$568 (-100%)
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $552 $0 −$552 (-100%)
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? No 78¢ 0¢ $611 $0 −$611 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic Valentin Royer 8¢ 0¢ $529 $0 −$529 (-100%)
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-24? No 62¢ 0¢ $576 $0 −$576 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $1,560 −$184 -12%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $286 +$184 +64%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $614 +$234 +38%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,265 −$174 -14%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $288 −$65 -23%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $613 +$249 +41%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $887 −$229 -26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $723 +$239 +33%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $709 +$53 +8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $443 −$269 -61%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $447 +$247 +55%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $771 +$30 +4%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 06 $548 +$248 +45%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $536 +$120 +22%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $280 +$262 +94%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $214 +$125 +58%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $554 +$210 +38%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $615 −$611 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $950 +$33 +4%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $801 −$220 -27%
Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Kostyuk (+1.5) May 31 $437 +$368 +84%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $494 −$57 -12%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $564 −$552 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic May 27 $543 −$529 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Andrey Rublev May 27 $577 −$568 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 26 $1,150 +$684 +60%
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $710 +$93 +13%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $583 −$576 -99%
Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5) May 24 $579 −$576 -99%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5) May 24 $1,005 +$66 +6%
Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-2.5) May 24 $1,004 +$148 +15%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,744 +$265 +15%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $1,522 +$220 +14%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul May 23 $1,136 +$386 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 60% +$162
other 32% +$132
world 5% −$491
crypto 3% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $42 32m
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $200 32m
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $571 32m
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 68¢ $562 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 47¢ $528 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 49¢ $34 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 82¢ $998 1h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur SELL Kamil Majchrzak 53¢ $278 4h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Kamil Majchrzak 52¢ $279 5h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 95¢ $469 13h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $286 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 68¢ $849 19h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 48¢ $614 20h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Qatar 72¢ $598 22h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 58¢ $492 22h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 46¢ $492 22h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 71¢ $773 22h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata SELL Dino Prizmic 40¢ $223 26h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Dino Prizmic 50¢ $288 26h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Ben Shelton 72¢ $862 32h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 50¢ $613 35h
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 51¢ $658 3d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 67¢ $887 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 98¢ $963 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 73¢ $723 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 89¢ $762 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 82¢ $709 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? SELL No 19¢ $175 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 46¢ $443 6d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 33¢ $222 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +4.4% -5.5% 45% 36% -9.1%
≤30d 35 +0.9% -8.8% 60% 49% -10.0%
≤90d 35 +0.9% -8.8% 60% 49% -10.0%
all 35 +0.9% -8.8% 60% 49% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 49% -10.0%
10% -17.5% 37% -18.7%
15% -25.5% 29% -26.5%
20% -32.8% 17% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records