Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:55:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x4057…70bc
world · 58 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$15 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$73
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses19 / 9
Open positions30
Markets (closed)28 / 58
History coverage64d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 30 History 28 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 58¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-32%)
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 81¢ 89¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 83¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 59¢ 38¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-35%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 72¢ 56¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-23%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Yes 12¢ 5¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-57%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 72¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-33%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 85¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 71¢ 75¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 70¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 91¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +88%
Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 +37%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Jun 03 $1 +$1 +75%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Jun 03 $2 $0 +15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 +25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Jun 03 $2 +$1 +28%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 03 $3 +$1 +22%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Jun 03 $4 $0 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Jun 03 $4 +$1 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Jun 03 $6 +$1 +23%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 +2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 03 $1 $0 +2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 03 $1 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Jun 03 $1 $0 +18%
Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 +18%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 69% −$17
other 15% +$2
politics 8% −$1
finance 6% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $3 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $1 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $1 4d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $3 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $1 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $1 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $5 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $10 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $3 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $5 4d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 4d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 4d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $3 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $2 9d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 9d
Epstein client list released by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $1 9d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $1 9d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +63.0% +47.5% 100% 100% +56.5%
≤30d 19 +26.8% +14.7% 100% 79% +14.9%
≤90d 28 -14.0% -22.2% 68% 54% -14.3%
all 28 -14.0% -22.2% 68% 54% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 54% -14.3%
10% -29.6% 36% -22.5%
15% -36.4% 18% -30.0%
20% -42.7% 11% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.41 · official $73.39 (match) · 93 history records