Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:16:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4057…3e70 sports 313 markets active 1h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$562 (-3%) realized −$513 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate67%207W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$96
14 days−$125
30 days−$1,788
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$610
crypto 31% −$174
other 24% +$65
politics 8% −$2
economics 4% +$71
tech 2% −$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -8.3% -17.0% 57% 38% -16.2%
≤30d 228 -17.6% -25.5% 64% 22% -25.4%
≤90d 241 -16.1% -24.1% 66% 22% -22.5%
all 311 -5.0% -14.1% 67% 28% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 28% -12.4%
10% -22.3% 24% -20.8%
15% -29.8% 18% -28.4%
20% -36.7% 14% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$27 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$513
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses207 / 104
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)311 / 313
History coverage589d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 311 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 95¢ 90¢ $67 $63 −$4 (-5%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 87¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $40 +$3 +7%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 +$13 +26%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 16 $57 −$39 -68%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $55 −$54 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $55 +$25 +46%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $130 +$9 +7%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $39 −$17 -44%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $58 +$71 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $97 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $54 −$41 -76%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $54 −$31 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $56 −$26 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $56 +$37 +67%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $54 +$16 +29%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $54 +$13 +23%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 15 $130 +$2 +1%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $54 −$53 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $56 +$44 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $54 −$52 -96%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $49 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 11 $44 +$35 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12AM ET Jun 08 $250 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 08 $41 +$18 +43%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $22 +$12 +56%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $47 −$47 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $40 +$26 +65%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $34 +$14 +42%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $30 +$5 +17%
MLP St. Louis: St. Louis Shock vs Los Angeles Mad Drops Jun 07 $10 $0 +2%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $30 +$7 +23%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $30 +$9 +29%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs JD Gaming (+2.5) Jun 06 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 06 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 05 $31 +$17 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 04 $31 +$9 +29%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5 Jun 04 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8PM ET Jun 03 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7PM ET Jun 03 $30 +$7 +22%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playoffs Jun 03 $60 +$4 +6%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series G Jun 03 $58 −$57 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $270 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $260 $0 +0%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $37 +$20 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 95¢ $67 50m
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? SELL No 100¢ $43 51m
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 93¢ $40 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $45 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 69¢ $54 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 68¢ $55 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $63 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 58¢ $34 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $50 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $18 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $57 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 60¢ $55 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $55 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL No 32¢ $22 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $39 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Under 93¢ $130 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 80¢ $129 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $48 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $48 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $49 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $97 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $71 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $13 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $54 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 34¢ $23 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $54 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $14 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.50 · official $61.74 · 740 history records