Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:11:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4054…3442 crypto 1205 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d only
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$606 (+2%) realized +$607 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate91%1091W / 113L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day59.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$53
14 days−$274
30 days−$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$81
other 20% +$145
world 1% $0
sports 1% −$6
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +4.1% -5.9% 96% 10% -5.7%
≤30d 438 -1.0% -10.5% 88% 10% -11.1%
≤90d 1204 +1.4% -8.3% 91% 11% -8.7%
all 1204 +1.4% -8.3% 91% 11% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 11% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 3% -17.4%
15% -25.1% 2% -25.4%
20% -32.4% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$607
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1091 / 113
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1204 / 1205
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day59.2
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 47¢ 67¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+42%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 54¢ 33¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$4 +24%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +8%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$1 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$2 +10%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$2 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$2 +9%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$1 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$10 -71%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $19 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +7%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $18 +$4 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$1 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $13 +$1 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $19 −$5 -24%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $22 12m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $17 12m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 36m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 36m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 37m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $21 37m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $21 16h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 36h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $19 36h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 36h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $14 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $19 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $21 38h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 40h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 40h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 3500 history records