Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4053…01d4 crypto 31 markets active 16h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$100 (-25%) realized −$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate24%7W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$111
other 6% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-46.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -40.5% -46.1% 24% 17% -35.5%
≤30d 29 -40.5% -46.1% 24% 17% -35.5%
≤90d 29 -40.5% -46.1% 24% 17% -35.5%
all 29 -40.5% -46.1% 24% 17% -35.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.1% 17% -35.5%
10% -51.3% 10% -41.7%
15% -56.0% 7% -47.3%
20% -60.3% 3% -52.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses7 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage5d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $24 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$3 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $45 −$11 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$28 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $42 −$9 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $3 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 11¢ $5 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 7¢ $10 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $5.00 · 110 history records