Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:58:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4052…89d6 crypto 975 markets active 0h ago coverage 275d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 275d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,396 (-8%) realized −$1,396 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate42%428W / 599L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 275d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,269
economics 0% −$3
sports 0% +$17
other 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -65.3% -68.6% 16% 15% -93.7%
≤30d 279 -23.8% -31.0% 34% 31% -69.9%
≤90d 456 -18.3% -26.1% 35% 32% -56.5%
all 1027 -7.2% -16.0% 42% 34% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 34% -29.9%
10% -24.1% 31% -36.6%
15% -31.4% 28% -42.7%
20% -38.1% 25% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$16 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

275d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$1,396
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses428 / 599
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1027 / 975
History coverage275d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1027 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Down 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 164 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 10, 8AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 30, 7AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 5PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 11AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$9 -218%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 6PM ET Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 4, 4AM ET Jun 15 $97 −$97 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 1AM ET Jun 15 $176 −$176 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 1AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 5AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 7AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 10, 7AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 5AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - September 2, 10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 5PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 8PM ET Jun 15 $516 −$516 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 9PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$27 -178%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 4PM ET Jun 15 $168 −$168 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 12PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 6PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 10, 5PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$6 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 11AM ET Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 4PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 2AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 4PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 1AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Solana reach $200 in July? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 4PM ET Jun 15 $78 −$78 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 6PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 4AM ET Jun 15 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 11PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 2PM ET Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 4, 1PM ET Jun 15 $306 −$306 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 7PM ET Jun 15 $240 −$386 -161%
Solana Up or Down - August 27, 12AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 23, 1PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 23, 3PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 12PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 1PM ET Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 9, 6AM ET Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on July 29? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 2PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 10AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 5PM ET Jun 15 $144 −$144 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 4PM ET Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 7AM ET Jun 15 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 11AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $31 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $16 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $29 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $4 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.75 · official $4.75 (match) · 3500 history records