Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:45:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
40 0x404f…58b7 crypto 395 markets active 2h ago coverage 373d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$129 (+0%) realized +$129 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%392W / 2L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$43
sports 40% +$83
other 1% +$21
politics 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 27 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 89 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 394 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 1% -9.3%
10% -17.5% 1% -17.9%
15% -25.5% 1% -25.9%
20% -32.8% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.62 per $1 lost it wins $7.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

373d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized+$129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses392 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)394 / 395
History coverage373d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 394 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $129 $128 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $128 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $76 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 19? Jun 19 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 18? Jun 18 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 17? Jun 17 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 13? Jun 13 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 12? Jun 12 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? Jun 11 $125 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 8? Jun 08 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 05 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? Jun 04 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 3? Jun 03 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 2? Jun 02 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 30? May 30 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? May 28 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 27? May 27 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 26 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 25? May 25 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 24? May 24 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 23? May 23 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 21? May 22 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 20? May 20 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? May 19 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 18? May 18 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 17? May 17 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 16? May 16 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 15? May 15 $120 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? May 14 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 13? May 13 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 12? May 12 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 11 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 9? May 09 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 8? May 08 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 7? May 07 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 6? May 06 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 5? May 05 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? May 04 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 3? May 03 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 2? May 02 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 1? May 01 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $117 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $129 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $76 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $52 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $76 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $126 3d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $126 4d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $126 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $126 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $126 7d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $125 9d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $125 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $125 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $125 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $124 13d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $124 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $124 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $123 18d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $123 19d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $123 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $123 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $123 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $123 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $123 25d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $122 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $122 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $122 28d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $122 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $121 30d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $121 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.38 · official $128.38 (match) · 806 history records