Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:07:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x404a…19b2 crypto 127 markets active 0h ago coverage 205d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,046 (-19%) realized −$1,045 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%54W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$151
7 days−$98
14 days−$204
30 days−$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$551
other 23% −$432
sports 19% −$104
economics 6% +$7
tech 5% +$28
world 4% +$1
politics 3% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +19.8% +8.4% 50% 43% -13.8%
≤30d 44 +11.1% +0.5% 59% 50% -17.2%
≤90d 78 -17.1% -25.0% 46% 40% -19.6%
all 121 -19.2% -26.9% 45% 40% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 40% -28.7%
10% -33.9% 29% -35.5%
15% -40.3% 19% -41.7%
20% -46.1% 15% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$28 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$1,045
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses54 / 67
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions6
Markets (closed)121 / 127
History coverage205d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 85¢ 90¢ $65 $69 +$4 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 62¢ 53¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $28 −$16 -57%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $120 +$6 +5%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $86 −$2 -3%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$8 -40%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -70%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $228 −$50 -22%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -81%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $141 +$39 +28%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $45 +$16 +35%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -73%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $35 +$15 +41%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$9 -71%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -79%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$20 +390%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $115 −$33 -29%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$38 +246%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +262%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +63%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $50 +$11 +23%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 09 $22 +$6 +27%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics Jun 07 $10 +$3 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $10 +$3 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $50 +$9 +18%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $5 −$5 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 31 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $10 +$1 +12%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 29 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 29 $50 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 13 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 23m
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 25m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 25m
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 26m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $14 40m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 54m
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 54m
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 59m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $110 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 21h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 21h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 21h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 21h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 21h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $43 21h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $30 21h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 21h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 21h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $41 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 53¢ $11 21h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 21h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 25h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 25h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 26h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 27h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 28h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.89 · official $98.89 (match) · 335 history records